2012: A subscription odyssey
This year saw the rise of a potential competitor to Netflix in Amazon Prime, as the retail giant started offering an all-you can-eat buffet of movie and TV shows. For each movie of the top 100 movies at the box office, I pulled data on for streaming info on Netflix and Amazon Prime. I also pulled up availability of DVDs to use as a yardstick in terms of overall movie availability. The final chart looked like this:
Rank | Title | Studio | Netflix | Amazon Prime | DVD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marvel’s The Avengers | BV | No | No | Yes |
2 | The Dark Knight Rises | WB | No | No | Yes |
3 | The Hunger Games | LGF | No | No | Yes |
4 | Skyfall | Sony | No | No | No |
5 | The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Sum. | No | No | No |
6 | The Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | No | No | Yes |
7 | The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | WB | No | No | No |
8 | Brave | BV | No | No | Yes |
9 | Ted | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
10 | Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted | P/DW | No | No | Yes |
11 | Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
12 | MIB 3 | Sony | No | No | Yes |
13 | Wreck-It Ralph | BV | No | No | No |
14 | Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | No | No | Yes |
15 | Snow White and the Huntsman | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
16 | Hotel Transylvania | Sony | No | No | No |
17 | Taken 2 | Fox | No | No | Yes |
18 | 21 Jump Street | Sony | No | No | Yes |
19 | Lincoln | BV | No | No | No |
20 | Prometheus | Fox | No | No | Yes |
21 | Safe House | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
22 | The Vow | SGem | No | No | Yes |
23 | Magic Mike | WB | No | No | Yes |
24 | The Bourne Legacy | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
25 | Argo | WB | No | No | No |
26 | Journey 2: The Mysterious Island | WB | No | No | Yes |
27 | Rise of the Guardians | P/DW | No | No | No |
28 | Flight | Par. | No | No | No |
29 | Think Like a Man | SGem | No | No | Yes |
30 | Life of Pi | Fox | No | No | No |
31 | The Campaign | WB | No | No | Yes |
32 | The Expendables 2 | LGF | No | No | Yes |
33 | Wrath of the Titans | WB | No | No | Yes |
34 | Les Miserables (2012) | Uni. | No | No | No |
35 | Dark Shadows | WB | No | No | Yes |
36 | Django Unchained | Wein. | No | No | No |
37 | John Carter | BV | No | No | Yes |
38 | Act of Valor | Rela. | Yes | No | Yes |
39 | Contraband | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
40 | Looper | TriS | No | No | Yes |
41 | Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection | LGF | No | No | Yes |
42 | Battleship | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
43 | Mirror Mirror | Rela. | Yes | No | Yes |
44 | Chronicle (2012) | Fox | No | No | Yes |
45 | Pitch Perfect | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
46 | Hope Springs | Sony | No | No | Yes |
47 | Underworld Awakening | SGem | No | No | Yes |
48 | The Lucky One | WB | No | No | Yes |
49 | The Dictator | Par. | No | No | Yes |
50 | Total Recall (2012) | Sony | No | No | Yes |
51 | Titanic 3D | Par. | No | No | No |
52 | American Reunion | Uni. | No | No | No |
53 | ParaNorman | Focus | No | No | Yes |
54 | This Means War | Fox | No | No | Yes |
55 | Project X | WB | No | No | Yes |
56 | The Woman in Black | CBS | No | No | Yes |
57 | Paranormal Activity 4 | Par. | No | No | No |
58 | The Devil Inside | Par. | Yes | Yes | Yes |
59 | Jack Reacher | Par. | No | No | No |
60 | The Odd Life of Timothy Green | BV | No | No | Yes |
61 | Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance | Sony | No | No | Yes |
62 | The Grey | ORF | Yes | No | Yes |
63 | Red Tails | Fox | No | No | Yes |
64 | The Possession | LGF | No | No | Yes |
65 | Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | Fox | No | No | Yes |
66 | Sinister | Sum. | No | No | Yes |
67 | Beauty and the Beast (3D) | BV | No | No | Yes |
68 | Savages (2012) | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
69 | The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | No | No | Yes |
70 | Moonrise Kingdom | Focus | No | No | Yes |
71 | The Three Stooges | Fox | No | No | Yes |
72 | Here Comes the Boom | Sony | No | No | Yes |
73 | Red Dawn (2012) | FD | No | No | No |
74 | Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (in 3D) | Fox | No | No | No |
75 | This Is 40 | Uni. | No | No | No |
76 | Resident Evil: Retribution | SGem | No | No | Yes |
77 | The Cabin in the Woods | LGF | No | No | Yes |
78 | What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LGF | No | No | Yes |
79 | Finding Nemo (3D) | BV | No | No | No |
80 | End of Watch | ORF | No | No | Yes |
81 | Rock of Ages | WB (NL) | No | No | Yes |
82 | Parental Guidance | Fox | No | No | No |
83 | Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter | Fox | No | No | Yes |
84 | Lawless | Wein. | No | No | Yes |
85 | That’s My Boy | Sony | No | No | Yes |
86 | Trouble with the Curve | WB | No | No | Yes |
87 | The Watch | Fox | No | No | Yes |
88 | Step Up Revolution | Sum. | No | No | Yes |
89 | Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds | LGF | No | No | Yes |
90 | Frankenweenie | BV | No | No | Yes |
91 | 2016 Obama’s America | RM | No | No | Yes |
92 | House at the End of The Street | Rela. | No | No | Yes |
93 | The Pirates! Band of Misfits | Sony | No | No | Yes |
94 | Joyful Noise | WB | No | No | Yes |
95 | Silver Linings Playbook | Wein. | No | No | No |
96 | Chimpanzee | BV | No | No | Yes |
97 | The Five-Year Engagement | Uni. | No | No | Yes |
98 | Cloud Atlas | WB | No | No | No |
99 | One For the Money | LGF | Yes | Yes | Yes |
100 | Alex Cross | Sum. | No | No | Yes |
At first look, the subscription based business doesn’t see to be where you want to go if you are looking for the latest hits. Of the top 100 movies at the box office in 2012, Netflix had 5 and Amazon Prime had 2. By comparison, 77 of those movies were available for rent on DVD (if you still have a corner rental place, that is). Let’s grade on the curve and assume that 77 is the number of movies we can expect to see available as the other 23 are still in theater. That would mean that Netflix saw 6.5% availability while Amazon prime saw 2.6% availability. The only thing we can assume, from there is that online subscription services are not the type of place you want to go to if you are looking to see movies that came out in the previous year. As the two services are looking to develop their catalog, it looks as if they decided that the first 12 months after release of a movie do not figure in their existing business plan and that consumers will go find such movies somewhere else.
VOD
So while it’s clear that the rental market is not so great, how is the internet VOD market doing? Over the last year, we’ve see the entry of YouTube into the VOD market, offering titles for $3.99-4.99. Also, last year, some readers felt that I had unfairly left Blockbuster out so I’ve added them. At the current time, only Vudu offers 3D title but because it does offer such titles, I decided to only include availability on a 3D re-release of an old title (eg. The Phantom Menace) if it is available as a streaming 3D title (However, titles that were new in both 2D and 3D this year were accepted if one of the format was available):
Rank | Title | Studio | iTunes | Amazon | Vudu | YouTube | Blockbuster | DVD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marvel’s The Avengers | BV | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
2 | The Dark Knight Rises | WB | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
3 | The Hunger Games | LGF | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | Purchase only | Yes |
4 | Skyfall | Sony | No | No | No | No | No | No |
5 | The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Sum. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
6 | The Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
7 | The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | WB | No | No | No | No | No | No |
8 | Brave | BV | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
9 | Ted | Uni. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
10 | Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted | P/DW | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes |
11 | Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax | Uni. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
12 | MIB 3 | Sony | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
13 | Wreck-It Ralph | BV | No | No | No | No | No | No |
14 | Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
15 | Snow White and the Huntsman | Uni. | No | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
16 | Hotel Transylvania | Sony | No | No | No | No | No | No |
17 | Taken 2 | Fox | Purchase only | No | No | No | No | Yes |
18 | 21 Jump Street | Sony | Purchase only | No | Purchase only | No | Purchase only | Yes |
19 | Lincoln | BV | No | No | No | No | No | No |
20 | Prometheus | Fox | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
21 | Safe House | Uni. | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes |
22 | The Vow | SGem | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
23 | Magic Mike | WB | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
24 | The Bourne Legacy | Uni. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
25 | Argo | WB | No | No | No | No | No | No |
26 | Journey 2: The Mysterious Island | WB | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
27 | Rise of the Guardians | P/DW | No | No | No | No | No | No |
28 | Flight | Par. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
29 | Think Like a Man | SGem | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
30 | Life of Pi | Fox | No | No | No | No | No | No |
31 | The Campaign | WB | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
32 | The Expendables 2 | LGF | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
33 | Wrath of the Titans | WB | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
34 | Les Miserables (2012) | Uni. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
35 | Dark Shadows | WB | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
36 | Django Unchained | Wein. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
37 | John Carter | BV | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
38 | Act of Valor | Rela. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
39 | Contraband | Uni. | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
40 | Looper | TriS | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
41 | Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection | LGF | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
42 | Battleship | Uni. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
43 | Mirror Mirror | Rela. | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
44 | Chronicle (2012) | Fox | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
45 | Pitch Perfect | Uni. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
46 | Hope Springs | Sony | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
47 | Underworld Awakening | SGem | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | Purchase only | Yes |
48 | The Lucky One | WB | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
49 | The Dictator | Par. | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
50 | Total Recall (2012) | Sony | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
51 | Titanic 3D | Par. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
52 | American Reunion | Uni. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
53 | ParaNorman | Focus | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
54 | This Means War | Fox | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
55 | Project X | WB | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
56 | The Woman in Black | CBS | Purchase only | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
57 | Paranormal Activity 4 | Par. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
58 | The Devil Inside | Par. | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
59 | Jack Reacher | Par. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
60 | The Odd Life of Timothy Green | BV | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
61 | Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance | Sony | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | Purchase only | Yes |
62 | The Grey | ORF | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
63 | Red Tails | Fox | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
64 | The Possession | LGF | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
65 | Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | Fox | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
66 | Sinister | Sum. | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes |
67 | Beauty and the Beast (3D) | BV | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
68 | Savages (2012) | Uni. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
69 | The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
70 | Moonrise Kingdom | Focus | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
71 | The Three Stooges | Fox | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
72 | Here Comes the Boom | Sony | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
73 | Red Dawn (2012) | FD | No | No | No | No | No | No |
74 | Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (in 3D) | Fox | No | No | No | No | No | No |
75 | This Is 40 | Uni. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
76 | Resident Evil: Retribution | SGem | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
77 | The Cabin in the Woods | LGF | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
78 | What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LGF | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
79 | Finding Nemo (3D) | BV | No | No | No | No | No | No |
80 | End of Watch | ORF | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
81 | Rock of Ages | WB (NL) | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
82 | Parental Guidance | Fox | No | No | No | No | No | No |
83 | Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter | Fox | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
84 | Lawless | Wein. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
85 | That’s My Boy | Sony | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
86 | Trouble with the Curve | WB | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
87 | The Watch | Fox | Purchase only | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
88 | Step Up Revolution | Sum. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
89 | Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds | LGF | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes | No | No | Yes |
90 | Frankenweenie | BV | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
91 | 2016 Obama’s America | RM | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
92 | House at the End of The Street | Rela. | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | Yes |
93 | The Pirates! Band of Misfits | Sony | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | Purchase only | Yes |
94 | Joyful Noise | WB | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
95 | Silver Linings Playbook | Wein. | No | No | No | No | No | No |
96 | Chimpanzee | BV | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
97 | The Five-Year Engagement | Uni. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
98 | Cloud Atlas | WB | No | No | No | No | No | No |
99 | One For the Money | LGF | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
100 | Alex Cross | Sum. | No | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Let’s aggregate the data to get a better view of what we’re looking at here. The values shown are for rental availability. I’ve put purchasable titles in parentheses:
iTunes | Amazon | Vudu | YouTube | Blockbuster | DVD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Top 10 | 6 (+1) | 6 (+1) | 6 (+1) | 5 | 3 (+1) | 7 |
Top 25 | 12 (+3) | 13 (+1) | 12 (+2) | 6 | 9 (+2) | 18 |
Top 50 | 25 (+6) | 24 (+4) | 24 (+5) | 18 | 18 (+3) | 38 |
Top 100 | 44 (+15) | 44 (+13) | 46 (+13) | 38 (+1) | 32 (+5) | 77 |
Looking at the aggregate data, it is clear that there is still progress to be made. While 77 of the top 100 movies at the box office in 2012 were available on DVD at the beginning of January 2013, you could only rent up to 46 online. Let’s assume, for a minute, that the DVD data represents total availability because the other movies are still in theater (though a case could be made for release movies online simultaneously). Based on that data, what’s the percentage of available blockbusters:
iTunes | Amazon | Vudu | YouTube | Blockbuster | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Top 10 | 85% | 85% | 85% | 71% | 43% |
Top 25 | 66% | 72% | 66% | 33% | 50% |
Top 50 | 66% | 63% | 63% | 47% | 47% |
Top 100 | 44% | 44% | 46% | 38% | 32% |
This data presents a very sad picture indeed. Less than half of the movies being made available on DVD are available for online streaming, which means that availability of such titles online is limited and will probably lead to increased piracy. Notable also is how far behind Blockbuster seems to be falling in the space. While Apple (iTunes), Amazon, and WalMart (Vudu) seem to be moving in near conjunction, Blockbuster seems to be falling further and further behind, placing 5th after YouTube, which only entered the business this year. The lack of presence on most consumer electronic seems to speak to the other end of the problem for Blockbuster and I would not be surprised if it abandoned online streaming in the future.
But what does this look like from a trending perspective? To do so, I’ve pulled the data for the top 100 movies from 2010 and 2011 and added in this year’s data:
Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 48 | 46 | 46 | 74 |
2011 | 45 | 44 | 44 | 74 |
2012 | 44 | 44 | 46 | 77 |
What’s interesting here is that we are seeing a relatively consistant pattern, with an average of 44-46 blockbusters available for legal online streaming yearly while we see around 75 blockbusters available on DVD.
But what do things look like when you factor in sales:
Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 56 | 60 | 57 | 74 |
2011 | 61 | 62 | 61 | 74 |
2012 | 57 | 59 | 59 | 77 |
The picture does not get any clearer when you factor in sales data. We are seeing titles being sold as digital copies at a slower pace than their equivalent on plastic disks. With 3 years of data now available, we can observe that there does not seem to be any growth at all in either models and that studios appear wary of the internet. From a business standpoint, it’s unclear why we’re not seeing parity here. After all, an increasing number of people are turning to streaming as the alternative to DVD and it seems that studios are , at best, leaving money on the table or, in the worst case scenario, encouraging piracy. One can only hope that 2013 will be the year when we might see some changes in that space as it concerns legal streaming of data.
Conclusion
2012 seems to have been a flat year when it comes to making progress in offering online content. While the subscription model seems to have avoided presenting popular titles, the VOD business seems to be stagnating with large parts of the catalog still sitting on the sideline. The most surprising finding is probably how the industry now seem to be stagnating when it comes to offering new titles online at the same rate as they’re presenting them on DVD and BluRay. It appears Hollywood is still skittish about the power of the internet and, as a result, may be encouraging further piracy of their titles as they refuse to provide legal ways to acquire the content online.