Streaming hits – 2012 edition

As has become customary on TNL.net, January is the time when I look at the streaming market through the Box Office Lens (for reference, here’s data from 2011 and 2010). So it’s time to pick up the 2012 list of box office hits and take the same look.

2012: A subscription odyssey

This year saw the rise of a potential competitor to Netflix in Amazon Prime, as the retail giant started offering an all-you can-eat buffet of movie and TV shows. For each movie of the top 100 movies at the box office, I pulled data on for streaming info on Netflix and Amazon Prime. I also pulled up availability of DVDs to use as a yardstick in terms of overall movie availability. The final chart looked like this:

Rank	Title	Studio	Netflix	Amazon Prime	DVD
1	Marvel’s The Avengers	BV	No	No	Yes
2	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	No	No	Yes
3	The Hunger Games	LGF	No	No	Yes
4	Skyfall	Sony	No	No	No
5	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2	Sum.	No	No	No
6	The Amazing Spider-Man	Sony	No	No	Yes
7	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	WB	No	No	No
8	Brave	BV	No	No	Yes
9	Ted	Uni.	No	No	Yes
10	Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted	P/DW	No	No	Yes
11	Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax	Uni.	No	No	Yes
12	MIB 3	Sony	No	No	Yes
13	Wreck-It Ralph	BV	No	No	No
14	Ice Age: Continental Drift	Fox	No	No	Yes
15	Snow White and the Huntsman	Uni.	No	No	Yes
16	Hotel Transylvania	Sony	No	No	No
17	Taken 2	Fox	No	No	Yes
18	21 Jump Street	Sony	No	No	Yes
19	Lincoln	BV	No	No	No
20	Prometheus	Fox	No	No	Yes
21	Safe House	Uni.	No	No	Yes
22	The Vow	SGem	No	No	Yes
23	Magic Mike	WB	No	No	Yes
24	The Bourne Legacy	Uni.	No	No	Yes
25	Argo	WB	No	No	No
26	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	WB	No	No	Yes
27	Rise of the Guardians	P/DW	No	No	No
28	Flight	Par.	No	No	No
29	Think Like a Man	SGem	No	No	Yes
30	Life of Pi	Fox	No	No	No
31	The Campaign	WB	No	No	Yes
32	The Expendables 2	LGF	No	No	Yes
33	Wrath of the Titans	WB	No	No	Yes
34	Les Miserables (2012)	Uni.	No	No	No
35	Dark Shadows	WB	No	No	Yes
36	Django Unchained	Wein.	No	No	No
37	John Carter	BV	No	No	Yes
38	Act of Valor	Rela.	Yes	No	Yes
39	Contraband	Uni.	No	No	Yes
40	Looper	TriS	No	No	Yes
41	Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection	LGF	No	No	Yes
42	Battleship	Uni.	No	No	Yes
43	Mirror Mirror	Rela.	Yes	No	Yes
44	Chronicle (2012)	Fox	No	No	Yes
45	Pitch Perfect	Uni.	No	No	Yes
46	Hope Springs	Sony	No	No	Yes
47	Underworld Awakening	SGem	No	No	Yes
48	The Lucky One	WB	No	No	Yes
49	The Dictator	Par.	No	No	Yes
50	Total Recall (2012)	Sony	No	No	Yes
51	Titanic 3D	Par.	No	No	No
52	American Reunion	Uni.	No	No	No
53	ParaNorman	Focus	No	No	Yes
54	This Means War	Fox	No	No	Yes
55	Project X	WB	No	No	Yes
56	The Woman in Black	CBS	No	No	Yes
57	Paranormal Activity 4	Par.	No	No	No
58	The Devil Inside	Par.	Yes	Yes	Yes
59	Jack Reacher	Par.	No	No	No
60	The Odd Life of Timothy Green	BV	No	No	Yes
61	Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance	Sony	No	No	Yes
62	The Grey	ORF	Yes	No	Yes
63	Red Tails	Fox	No	No	Yes
64	The Possession	LGF	No	No	Yes
65	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days	Fox	No	No	Yes
66	Sinister	Sum.	No	No	Yes
67	Beauty and the Beast (3D)	BV	No	No	Yes
68	Savages (2012)	Uni.	No	No	Yes
69	The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel	FoxS	No	No	Yes
70	Moonrise Kingdom	Focus	No	No	Yes
71	The Three Stooges	Fox	No	No	Yes
72	Here Comes the Boom	Sony	No	No	Yes
73	Red Dawn (2012)	FD	No	No	No
74	Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (in 3D)	Fox	No	No	No
75	This Is 40	Uni.	No	No	No
76	Resident Evil: Retribution	SGem	No	No	Yes
77	The Cabin in the Woods	LGF	No	No	Yes
78	What to Expect When You’re Expecting	LGF	No	No	Yes
79	Finding Nemo (3D)	BV	No	No	No
80	End of Watch	ORF	No	No	Yes
81	Rock of Ages	WB (NL)	No	No	Yes
82	Parental Guidance	Fox	No	No	No
83	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	Fox	No	No	Yes
84	Lawless	Wein.	No	No	Yes
85	That’s My Boy	Sony	No	No	Yes
86	Trouble with the Curve	WB	No	No	Yes
87	The Watch	Fox	No	No	Yes
88	Step Up Revolution	Sum.	No	No	Yes
89	Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds	LGF	No	No	Yes
90	Frankenweenie	BV	No	No	Yes
91	2016 Obama’s America	RM	No	No	Yes
92	House at the End of The Street	Rela.	No	No	Yes
93	The Pirates! Band of Misfits	Sony	No	No	Yes
94	Joyful Noise	WB	No	No	Yes
95	Silver Linings Playbook	Wein.	No	No	No
96	Chimpanzee	BV	No	No	Yes
97	The Five-Year Engagement	Uni.	No	No	Yes
98	Cloud Atlas	WB	No	No	No
99	One For the Money	LGF	Yes	Yes	Yes
100	Alex Cross	Sum.	No	No	Yes

At first look, the subscription based business doesn’t see to be where you want to go if you are looking for the latest hits. Of the top 100 movies at the box office in 2012, Netflix had 5 and Amazon Prime had 2. By comparison, 77 of those movies were available for rent on DVD (if you still have a corner rental place, that is). Let’s grade on the curve and assume that 77 is the number of movies we can expect to see available as the other 23 are still in theater. That would mean that Netflix saw 6.5% availability while Amazon prime saw 2.6% availability. The only thing we can assume, from there is that online subscription services are not the type of place you want to go to if you are looking to see movies that came out in the previous year. As the two services are looking to develop their catalog, it looks as if they decided that the first 12 months after release of a movie do not figure in their existing business plan and that consumers will go find such movies somewhere else.

VOD

So while it’s clear that the rental market is not so great, how is the internet VOD market doing? Over the last year, we’ve see the entry of YouTube into the VOD market, offering titles for $3.99-4.99. Also, last year, some readers felt that I had unfairly left Blockbuster out so I’ve added them. At the current time, only Vudu offers 3D title but because it does offer such titles, I decided to only include availability on a 3D re-release of an old title (eg. The Phantom Menace) if it is available as a streaming 3D title (However, titles that were new in both 2D and 3D this year were accepted if one of the format was available):

Rank	Title	Studio	iTunes	Amazon	Vudu	YouTube	Blockbuster	DVD
1	Marvel’s The Avengers	BV	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
2	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
3	The Hunger Games	LGF	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	Purchase only	Yes
4	Skyfall	Sony	No	No	No	No	No	No
5	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2	Sum.	No	No	No	No	No	No
6	The Amazing Spider-Man	Sony	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
7	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	WB	No	No	No	No	No	No
8	Brave	BV	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
9	Ted	Uni.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
10	Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted	P/DW	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes
11	Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax	Uni.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
12	MIB 3	Sony	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
13	Wreck-It Ralph	BV	No	No	No	No	No	No
14	Ice Age: Continental Drift	Fox	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
15	Snow White and the Huntsman	Uni.	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
16	Hotel Transylvania	Sony	No	No	No	No	No	No
17	Taken 2	Fox	Purchase only	No	No	No	No	Yes
18	21 Jump Street	Sony	Purchase only	No	Purchase only	No	Purchase only	Yes
19	Lincoln	BV	No	No	No	No	No	No
20	Prometheus	Fox	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
21	Safe House	Uni.	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
22	The Vow	SGem	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
23	Magic Mike	WB	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
24	The Bourne Legacy	Uni.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
25	Argo	WB	No	No	No	No	No	No
26	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	WB	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
27	Rise of the Guardians	P/DW	No	No	No	No	No	No
28	Flight	Par.	No	No	No	No	No	No
29	Think Like a Man	SGem	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
30	Life of Pi	Fox	No	No	No	No	No	No
31	The Campaign	WB	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
32	The Expendables 2	LGF	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
33	Wrath of the Titans	WB	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
34	Les Miserables (2012)	Uni.	No	No	No	No	No	No
35	Dark Shadows	WB	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
36	Django Unchained	Wein.	No	No	No	No	No	No
37	John Carter	BV	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	No	Yes
38	Act of Valor	Rela.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
39	Contraband	Uni.	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
40	Looper	TriS	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
41	Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection	LGF	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
42	Battleship	Uni.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
43	Mirror Mirror	Rela.	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
44	Chronicle (2012)	Fox	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	No	Yes
45	Pitch Perfect	Uni.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
46	Hope Springs	Sony	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
47	Underworld Awakening	SGem	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	Purchase only	Yes
48	The Lucky One	WB	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
49	The Dictator	Par.	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
50	Total Recall (2012)	Sony	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
51	Titanic 3D	Par.	No	No	No	No	No	No
52	American Reunion	Uni.	No	No	No	No	No	No
53	ParaNorman	Focus	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
54	This Means War	Fox	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	No	Yes
55	Project X	WB	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
56	The Woman in Black	CBS	Purchase only	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
57	Paranormal Activity 4	Par.	No	No	No	No	No	No
58	The Devil Inside	Par.	Yes	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	No	Yes
59	Jack Reacher	Par.	No	No	No	No	No	No
60	The Odd Life of Timothy Green	BV	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
61	Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance	Sony	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	Purchase only	Yes
62	The Grey	ORF	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
63	Red Tails	Fox	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	No	Yes
64	The Possession	LGF	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
65	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days	Fox	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
66	Sinister	Sum.	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
67	Beauty and the Beast (3D)	BV	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
68	Savages (2012)	Uni.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
69	The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel	FoxS	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
70	Moonrise Kingdom	Focus	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
71	The Three Stooges	Fox	No	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	No	Yes
72	Here Comes the Boom	Sony	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
73	Red Dawn (2012)	FD	No	No	No	No	No	No
74	Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (in 3D)	Fox	No	No	No	No	No	No
75	This Is 40	Uni.	No	No	No	No	No	No
76	Resident Evil: Retribution	SGem	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
77	The Cabin in the Woods	LGF	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
78	What to Expect When You’re Expecting	LGF	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
79	Finding Nemo (3D)	BV	No	No	No	No	No	No
80	End of Watch	ORF	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
81	Rock of Ages	WB (NL)	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
82	Parental Guidance	Fox	No	No	No	No	No	No
83	Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter	Fox	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
84	Lawless	Wein.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
85	That’s My Boy	Sony	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
86	Trouble with the Curve	WB	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
87	The Watch	Fox	Purchase only	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
88	Step Up Revolution	Sum.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
89	Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds	LGF	Purchase only	Purchase only	Yes	No	No	Yes
90	Frankenweenie	BV	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
91	2016 Obama’s America	RM	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
92	House at the End of The Street	Rela.	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	Yes
93	The Pirates! Band of Misfits	Sony	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	Purchase only	Yes
94	Joyful Noise	WB	No	No	No	No	No	Yes
95	Silver Linings Playbook	Wein.	No	No	No	No	No	No
96	Chimpanzee	BV	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
97	The Five-Year Engagement	Uni.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
98	Cloud Atlas	WB	No	No	No	No	No	No
99	One For the Money	LGF	Purchase only	Purchase only	Purchase only	No	No	Yes
100	Alex Cross	Sum.	No	No	No	No	No	Yes

Let’s aggregate the data to get a better view of what we’re looking at here. The values shown are for rental availability. I’ve put purchasable titles in parentheses:

	iTunes	Amazon	Vudu	YouTube	Blockbuster	DVD
Top 10	6 (+1)	6 (+1)	6 (+1)	5	3 (+1)	7
Top 25	12 (+3)	13 (+1)	12 (+2)	6	9 (+2)	18
Top 50	25 (+6)	24 (+4)	24 (+5)	18	18 (+3)	38
Top 100	44 (+15)	44 (+13)	46 (+13)	38 (+1)	32 (+5)	77

Looking at the aggregate data, it is clear that there is still progress to be made. While 77 of the top 100 movies at the box office in 2012 were available on DVD at the beginning of January 2013, you could only rent up to 46 online. Let’s assume, for a minute, that the DVD data represents total availability because the other movies are still in theater (though a case could be made for release movies online simultaneously). Based on that data, what’s the percentage of available blockbusters:

	iTunes	Amazon	Vudu	YouTube	Blockbuster
Top 10	85%	85%	85%	71%	43%
Top 25	66%	72%	66%	33%	50%
Top 50	66%	63%	63%	47%	47%
Top 100	44%	44%	46%	38%	32%

This data presents a very sad picture indeed. Less than half of the movies being made available on DVD are available for online streaming, which means that availability of such titles online is limited and will probably lead to increased piracy. Notable also is how far behind Blockbuster seems to be falling in the space. While Apple (iTunes), Amazon, and WalMart (Vudu) seem to be moving in near conjunction, Blockbuster seems to be falling further and further behind, placing 5th after YouTube, which only entered the business this year. The lack of presence on most consumer electronic seems to speak to the other end of the problem for Blockbuster and I would not be surprised if it abandoned online streaming in the future.

But what does this look like from a trending perspective? To do so, I’ve pulled the data for the top 100 movies from 2010 and  2011 and added in this year’s data:

	Amazon	iTunes	Vudu	DVD
2010	48	46	46	74
2011	45	44	44	74
2012	44	44	46	77

What’s interesting here is that we are seeing a relatively consistant pattern, with an average of 44-46 blockbusters available for legal online streaming yearly while we see around 75 blockbusters available on DVD.

But what do things look like when you factor in sales:

	Amazon	iTunes	Vudu	DVD
2010	56	60	57	74
2011	61	62	61	74
2012	57	59	59	77

The picture does not get any clearer when you factor in sales data. We are seeing titles being sold as digital copies at a slower pace than their equivalent on plastic disks. With 3 years of data now available, we can observe that there does not seem to be any growth at all in either models and that studios appear wary of the internet. From a business standpoint, it’s unclear why we’re not seeing parity here. After all, an increasing number of people are turning to streaming as the alternative to DVD and it seems that studios are , at best, leaving money on the table or, in the worst case scenario, encouraging piracy. One can only hope that 2013 will be the year when we might see some changes in that space as it concerns legal streaming of data.

Conclusion

2012 seems to have been a flat year when it comes to making progress in offering online content. While the subscription model seems to have avoided presenting popular titles, the VOD business seems to be stagnating with large parts of the catalog still sitting on the sideline. The most surprising finding is probably how the industry now seem to be stagnating when it comes to offering new titles online at the same rate as they’re presenting them on DVD and BluRay. It appears Hollywood is still skittish about the power of the internet and, as a result, may be encouraging further piracy of their titles as they refuse to provide legal ways to acquire the content online.