2010: Box Office Winners availability
A year ago, I went through the list of box office winners and looked at their availability online. I pulled the information again in January 2012, a full year after the initial data set. The 2012 data looked like this:
| Rank | Title | Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toy Story 3 | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 2 | Alice in Wonderland | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 3 | Iron Man 2 | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 4 | The Twilight Saga: Eclipse | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 5 | Inception | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 6 | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 7 | Despicable Me | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 8 | Shrek Forever After | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 9 | How to Train Your Dragon | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 10 | Tangled | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 11 | The Karate Kid | No | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 12 | Clash of the Titans | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| 13 | Grown Ups | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 14 | Tron Legacy | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 15 | Megamind | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 16 | Little Fockers | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 17 | The Last Airbender | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 18 | True Grit | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 19 | Shutter Island | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 20 | The Other Guys | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 21 | Salt | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 22 | Jackass 3D | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 23 | Valentine’s Day | No | No | Yes | No | Yes |
| 24 | Robin Hood | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 25 | The Expendables | Yes | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 26 | Due Date | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 27 | The Chronicle of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader |
No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 28 | Date Night | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 29 | Sex and the City 2 | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 30 | The Social Network | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 31 | The Book of Eli | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| 32 | The Town | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 33 | Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time |
Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 34 | Red | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 35 | Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief |
No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 36 | Paranormal Activity 2 | Yes | Purchase only | No | Purchase only | Yes |
| 37 | Yogi Bear | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 38 | Eat Pray Love | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 39 | Unstoppable | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 40 | Dear John | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 41 | The A-team | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 42 | Knight & Day | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 43 | Black Swan | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 44 | Dinner for Schmucks | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 45 | The Fighter | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 46 | The Bounty Hunter | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 47 | The Tourist | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 48 | Diary of a Wimpy Kid | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 49 | The Sorcerer’s Apprentice | Yes | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 50 | A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 51 | The Last Song | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 52 | The Wolfman | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 53 | Get him to the Greek | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 54 | Resident Evil: Afterlife | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 55 | Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 56 | Tooth Fairy | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 57 | Secretariat | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 58 | Easy A | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 59 | Takers | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 60 | Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’hoole |
No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 61 | Life as We Know It | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 62 | Letters to Juliet | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 63 | Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 64 | Predators | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 65 | Hot Tub Time Machine | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes |
| 66 | Kick-Ass | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 67 | The King’s Speech | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 68 | Killers | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 69 | Saw 3D | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 70 | Cop Out | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| 71 | Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 72 | Edge of Darkness | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 73 | Death at a Funeral | No | Yes | Yes | Purchase only | Yes |
| 74 | Step-Up 3D | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 75 | The Last Exorcism | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 76 | Legion | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 77 | The Crazies | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 78 | Gulliver’s Travels | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 79 | Burlesque | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 80 | For Colored Girls | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 81 | The Back-up Plan | No | Purchase only | No | No | Yes |
| 82 | Vampires Suck | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 83 | The American | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 84 | Green Zone | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 85 | Marmaduke | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 86 | Devil | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 87 | Hereafter | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 88 | When in Rome | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 89 | Love and Other Drugs | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 90 | She’s Out of My League | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| 91 | Scott Pilgrim vs. the World | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 92 | Charlie St. Cloud | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 93 | Morning Glory | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 94 | Daybreakers | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 95 | How Do You Know | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 96 | Nanny McPhee Returns | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 97 | The Switch | No | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 98 | Brooklyn’s Finest | Yes | Purchase only | Purchase only | Purchase only | Yes |
| 99 | Machete | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| 100 | Ramona and Beezus | No | No | No | No | Yes |
Aggregate Rental data
When you tally it up, the rental only chart (excluding movies you can purchase) looks as follows:
| Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Top 25 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| top 50 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 50 |
| Top 100 | 26 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 100 |
The data seems to show that hits from over a year ago are still difficult to get. Netflix fares best, capturing 26% of the titles but pay-per-view services like Amazon, iTunes, and Vudu turn in a paltry offering with only 15% of the 2010 box office winners being available for rent on these services.
So, having run the data for 2 years in a row, are we seeing improvements in the market?
| Rankings | 2010 | 2011 | Difference | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | |
| Top 10 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | +2 | -6 | -6 | -6 | +2 |
| Top 25 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 25 | +7 | -10 | -10 | -13 | +7 |
| Top 50 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 35 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 50 | +9 | -19 | -19 | -23 | +15 |
| Top 100 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 47 | 75 | 26 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 100 | +16 | -35 | -31 | -38 | +25 |
The picture here actually shows something fairly disastrous to people who hope that things are improving in terms of availability of movies along the long tail. While Netflix turns in a stronger performance, more than doubling availabilities of 2010 box office winners from 10 to 26, all other online services are seeing availability drop by 31% or more. This means that almost one third fewer 2010 box office winners are available this year as rentals as compared to last year. The strategy here seems to call in question the existence of a long tail in terms of media availability as far as rentals are concerned.
While the cost of storing a movie is a marginal one, it appears studios prefer to not make titles available as rentals online. There is some humor in the fact that whatever corner DVD rental place is still in existence near your home probably has a higher selection of available titles from 2010 than could be found last year because ALL 2010 box office winners are now available on DVD.
Aggregate Rental and Sales data
So, with a strong suspicion that sales numbers may be better, let’s see what happens if we had movies that may not be available for rent but can be purchase (ie. are more expensive to get)
| Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 10 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| Top 25 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 25 |
| top 50 | 13 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 50 |
| Top 100 | 26 | 56 | 51 | 54 | 100 |
The first one notices here is that the number of titles legally available online is still relatively low a full year after all the titles have been released. While DVDs have come out, legal online streaming services online offer a bit over half of the 2010 box office winners, with Amazon having the most extensive catalog. The availability of legal movie streams, when compared to DVD, is still a challenge.
But have things improved since last year? To figure that out, let’s look at the availability of the same titles over the last couple of years:
| Rankings | 2010 | 2011 | Difference | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | Netflix | Amazon | iTunes | Vudu | DVD | |
| Top 10 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 | +2 | -2 | -4 | -3 | +2 |
| Top 25 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 25 | +7 | -1 | -1 | -2 | +7 |
| Top 50 | 4 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 35 | 13 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 50 | +9 | -2 | -7 | -4 | +15 |
| Top 100 | 10 | 58 | 59 | 58 | 75 | 26 | 56 | 51 | 54 | 100 | +16 | -2 | -8 | -4 | +25 |
My initial hunch was that we would have seen improvements in the sales of legal streams from one year to the next, just as we would would have seen for DVDs because of availability.
But the picture is actually surprising as the availability of legal streams for 2010 box office winners has dropped in the last 12 months. On their face, one might expect sales of legal online streams to see patterns similar to sales of DVDs, even if they would trail the plastic medium. But what’s surprising here is that it appears studios have decided to pull their movie catalogs back offline.
There is still a long way before legal online streaming matches DVD sales as it appears movie studios are still addicted to selling pieces of plastic than they are to selling movies in any form available.